Good News

Roscommon/Crawford Chapter

                            Some Good News About Climate for a Change

In this blog we can report good news on the climate front: Our air quality is getting better, bit by bit, and the United States is helping by reducing C02 emissions, although not nearly enough to avoid the problems of climate change.


The shelter-at-home requirement and the fear surrounding the corona virus has provoked a major positive effect in cleaning our atmosphere. Data is not yet available on the amount of C02 and other greenhouse gases that are being released in the midst of the crisis, but anecdotal evidence is pointing toward major improvements as air quality has improved markedly. The evidence is visual; residents in many places can see the results as hazy, smoky skies have become nearly clear in places where low visibility had become common. In Punjab, India residents have been euphoric in noting that the Himalayan Mountains are visible for the first time in 30 years. Perhaps this small taste of what can be accomplished as we obtain cleaner air will help stimulate further work to prevent climate change.


The improvement in air quality is not only due to the virus crisis; nations everywhere are making small improvements in reducing their emissions of CO2. In 2019, before the virus, the US had the largest year-on-year reduction in C02 of any country. The International Energy Agency report of February 2020 confirms these positive results. Here are the details.


After years of steady increases, emissions of greenhouse gases reached a plateau in 2019. The report notes that "Global energy-related CO2 emissions flattened in 2019 at around 33 gigatons (Gt), following two years of increases." The report continues, "in 2019 the U.S. had the largest year-on-year reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of any country, in absolute terms." The improvement, although noteworthy, did not justify the remarks by some conservatives who said that the U.S. had “led the world” or was “the global leader.” This was a clear case of gilding the lily because the U.S. reduced its CO2 emissions by just 2.9%, while other countries and regions fared better. Germany, for example, achieved a year-on-year reduction of 8% in its CO2 emissions and Japan achieved a reduction of 4.3%.


The achievement resulted from sharp declines in emissions from the power sectors in several advanced countries thanks to renewable power sources and milder weather. These advanced nations generally expanded their use of wind and solar power, fuel switching from coal to natural gas, and higher nuclear power output. Before we celebrate too much, it should be noted that the US produced around 4.8 Gt (gigatons/billions of tons) of CO2 in 2019 and several less developed nations increased their CO2 emissions as their power demands increased. Furthermore, much more needs to be done to meet the world-wide agreements about climate change established by the Paris Accords.

“US emissions are now down almost 1 Gt from their peak in the year 2000, the largest absolute decline by any country over that period." A major  reason is the 15% reduction in the use of coal for power generation. The gradual changeover from the high-polluting coal occurred in large part because of the economic benefit for the changeover since benchmark natural gas prices moved 45% lower than 2018 levels. Natural gas increased its share in electricity generation to a record high of 37%.


Global power sector emissions declined by some 170 Mt, or 1.2%, with the biggest falls taking place in advanced economies where CO2 emissions are now at levels not seen since the late 1980s (when electricity demand was one-third lower). Although technically not a country, the European Union achieved both a larger absolute reduction and a greater rate of reduction in CO2 emissions than the US did over that time period.


The growth of renewables in electricity generation in advanced economies delivered 130 Mt of CO2 emissions savings in 2019. Wind accounted for the biggest share of the increase, with output expanding 12% from 2018 levels. Solar saw the fastest growth amongst renewable sources, helping to push renewables’ share of total electricity generation close to 28%. Coal-to-gas fuel switching for power generation avoided 100 Mt of CO2 in advanced economies and was particularly strong in the United States due to record low natural gas prices. Higher nuclear power generation in advanced economies, particularly in Japan and Korea, avoided over 50 Mt of CO2.


The reduction of emissions from power generation moved transportation-based emissions just ahead of electricity generation (in creating pollution) because of increasing number of vehicle miles traveled, an increase of 46.1 percent from 1990 to 2018. Average new vehicle fuel economy has improved almost every year since 2005. Overall, the transportation sector has reduced emissions from 2000 (million tons) in 2005 to 1800 (million tons) in 2018 despite the increase in miles traveled.


Oil price is one of many factors affecting transportation. At the beginning of this year, the average price of crude was $60 per barrel for the standard west Texas crude. Then a fight broke out between Saudi Arabian and Russian oil producers concerning price and volume. The result was that the set price of oil fell like a rock in a swimming pool until the price reached into negative territory with sellers paying former buyers to accept shipments of oil. US oil producers watched the drama unfold, unable to do anything about the world price collapse. By the end of April, the price of oil had rebounded slightly, commanding a paltry $13 per barrel, not nearly enough to avoid a potential bankruptcy of 140 US oil producers. No one seems to know what will happen next, nor what price oil will command as the corona virus crisis fades away. Some nations are planning to prop up their oil industries as has US President Trump who tweeted recently that he will "never let the great US oil and gas industry down." Does that mean he will increase the current subsidies to the industry that are already somewhere between 10 and 50 billion dollars, thus perpetuating the government’s role in assuring continued pollution by the transportation sector? No one knows. For now, we’ll take any improvement in emissions reductions we can get as the world struggles to meet the goals set at the 2015 Paris Accords.