How We Got Here & What'da We Do Next

How We Got Here

What’da We Do Next

 

Regular readers of this blog know that the cause of global warming and the resultant climate change is human-induced air pollution caused by burning coal, oil, and gas. Over time, we humans have demanded more and more energy to fuel the industrial revolution leading to more and more air pollution. The concentration of C02 has been carefully measured in our atmosphere by sophisticated techniques and scientists have proven that the increase is the cause for the greenhouse effect that is beginning to cripple our earth.

The graph below shows in stark reality the increasing CO2 emissions from 1900 till today, by listing the number of giga tons ( giga is one billion tons) of CO2 released into the atmosphere. The graph ends with an estimation of the effect for the remainder of 2020. Although I have not included it to save space, a separate graph showing the average temperature of the earth exactly follows the graph below, just as you would expect. The upward curve is a striking reminder of just how much pollution is accumulating in the air we breathe. In addition to a steadily increasing concentration of CO2, the graph also shows several small dips due to major economic shocks that reduced fuel consumption and pollution. Those dips shown on the graph are 1. The Great Depression, 2. World War II, 3. the oil shortage in the late 1970’s and 4. the financial recession of 2008. Note the downward dip of the line in 2020. This is the result of the ongoing pandemic with corona virus. The pandemic has caused the virtual elimination of many fuel consuming activities, think cruise ships, airlines, and reduced automotive travel in addition to reduced manufacturing.

Experts predict that by the end of 2020, humans will have reduced our CO2 emissions by about 7% or 3 giga tons compared to our recent past. If the past is any guide to our future, the same experts also predict that once the pandemic has passed and humans resume their normal activities, pollution will return to its previous trajectory and we will soon reach emissions of 35 giga tons -- obviously the wrong thing for the health of the planet.

Note the heavy line I have drawn indicating 18 Gigatons of C02 released. This is the plateau we must reach in emissions of CO2 by 2030 if we are to meet the requirements outlined in the Paris Accords. We have slightly less than 10 years to reach this goal and return to the amount of pollution that was released in the mid 1980’s. It seems an extraordinarily large reduction of CO2 considering the changes wrought by the pandemic and how much more we need to do for us earthlings who have become accustomed to having unlimited energy at our fingertips whenever we please.

The US Congress is finally beginning to discuss action on the issue. As indicated in our last blog, 8 separate bills have been introduced in either the House or Senate. The House’s Magnum Opus seems to be its recent 547-page report from the majority staff of the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis.

A summary of the report indicates the plan is long on ideas but short on details for full implementation of each proposal. Having a tax on carbon emissions (like the Ccl proposal) seems to be a given as this idea runs through many of the proposals such as establishing a market for trading carbon credits. Unlike the Ccl proposal in House Bill 763, the new proposal from the House does not include the return of carbon tax money to taxpayers, rather the report says Congress “may decide to use some of the revenue” from carbon pricing for “top priorities” such as adaptation and supporting clean energy. It does not mention returning the funds raised via dividends or tax cuts, and although it insists low-income citizens should be protected, it does not specify the mechanism.

Sequestration of atmospheric carbon is also not discussed in detail beyond the notion of committing more funds for research and development of techniques that might prove beneficial.

One area of the proposal is of especial interest to some of us who care deeply about our natural resources. Under the heading of “Protect and Restore America’s Lands, Waters, Ocean, and Wildlife” are several provocative ideas

 ● Establish a national goal of protecting at least 30% of U.S. lands and ocean areas by 2030

 ● Re-establish the Civilian Conservation Corps to restore and maintain public lands

● Enact a moratorium on oil and gas leases on federal lands and prohibit drilling on the outer continental shelf. (The report also recommends eliminating all current tax breaks that are currently enjoyed by the oil and gas industry.)

● Include protection of wildlife and flora in future [fossil fuel] extraction on federal lands.

The bottom line is that there is no shortage of ideas in the 116^th Congress on changes needed to combat the crisis. I am guessing we won’t see any significant action; however, until a new Congress is convened after the November election. Rather than simply wait for federal action, it seems to me that now is a perfect time to focus our ideas on local climate change action while Congress fiddles.